Disinformation Trends

MONITORING SNAPSHOT 20

17 – 23 June 2025

SUMMARY

DFRLab conducts a weekly review of data based on a search query including Ukrainian, Russian and English languages to identify when spikes of CBRN disinformation narratives are spreading on Telegram, X, and web. DFRLab tracks both: 

  • Chatter – official statements, transcriptions of official statements provided with no commentary, news items presented in a factual manner
  • And disinformation – factually untrue statements and messages manipulating facts, presenting a strong emotional case or call to action aimed at changing policy. 

This report reveals:

Radiological and Nuclear

Nuclear Chatter

  • Elevated volume of nuclear-related chatter on both Telegram and X (formerly Twitter) focused on US targeting of Iranian nuclear facilities to prevent further nuclear weapon development efforts;
  • Discussion spearheaded across both platforms with generic chatter about potential attacks mixed with more strategic narratives;
  • Chatter around tactical nuclear weapon scenarios including statements about potential use of tactical nuclear missiles to target Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility;
  • Discussion of possible environmental implications if Iranian nuclear facilities are struck, destroyed, or damaged;
  • Discussion about Zaporizhzhia NPP integration into the Russian energy grid as part of ongoing occupation narratives.

Nuclear disinformation

  • Widespread fearmongering about World War III, with manipulation of US-Iran tensions to suggest imminent global conflict escalation.
  • Exploitation of Vladimir Zhirinovsky’s alleged prophetic statements about the inevitability of Israel-Iran conflict became a theme;
    • Zhirinovsky’s statements leveraged as alternatives to other predictions, with his elevated status in Russian popular culture used to justify geopolitical positions;
    • Such predictions regularly used to provide seemingly authoritative backing for Russia’s actions and narratives.
  • Medvedev’s claims that American strikes would incentivize rather than deter Iran’s nuclear weapon development, contradicting stated US objectives.
  • Continued Ukraine-focused nuclear disinformation with multiple concerning narratives;
    • Putin’s statements about “dirty bomb” scenarios claiming no evidence of Ukrainian plans but suggesting such actions would justify tactical nuclear response;
    • Further propagation of Medvedev’s nuclear threats against Ukraine alongside claims that Europe is planning to use Ukraine to strike Russia with a “dirty bomb.”
Biological

Biological Chatter and Disinformation

This period denoted a lack of biological chatter and disinformation in the top 500 posts per platform, with the messages overwhelmed by high performing posts pertaining to nuclear topics.

Chemical

Chemical chatter and disinformation

This period denoted a lack of chemical chatter and disinformation in the top 500 posts per platform, with the messages overwhelmed by high performing posts pertaining to nuclear topics.

Dominant Keywords

This period we continue seeing a significant spike in chatter around nuclear weapons due to the ongoing situation in the Middle East and statements about “dirty bombs” made by Vladimir Putin during an economic forum speech.

Prevalence of Keywords in CBRN Disinformation from monitoring period relative to prior periods (Keywords above the line were mentioned in an above average number of posts, while keywords below the line were discussed less frequently than usual. Note that each keyword accounts for variation in the term. For example, “NPP” captures not only the acronym, but also “nuclear power plant” and “nuclear plant” across all three languages.) 

IDENTIFYING DISINFORMATION TRENDS

The Global Partnership against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction (GP) is committed to strengthening WMD disarmament and nonproliferation efforts. Disinformation campaigns significantly undermine cooperative threat reduction efforts. The GP Counter WMD Disinformation Initiative aims to track ongoing narratives, understand their impacts and counter state-sponsored or state-adjacent disinformation across Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) threats. 

Narrative Trend Monitoring: As part of the GP efforts to identify, understand, and mitigate hostile CBRN disinformation, the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRLab) conducts a bimonthly search query of state-sponsored or state-adjacent disinformation narratives. This real-time detection allows the initiative to swiftly recognize, isolate and respond to disinformation narratives and networks as they occur. 

Methodology: This snapshot report is created from tailored search queries that includes content in Ukrainian, Russian, and English languages, providing an extended search base and corpus of analysis and scale. The results of the query are exported and stored in standardized file formats. DFRLab then extracts a standard subset of the results for manual review. This material consists of 1000 top posts from X and Telegram.  

The 1000 posts output by the data preparation step are manually reviewed to determine whether they are ‘relevant’ (part of general CBRN discussion/ “chatter”) and ‘in-scope’ (probable mis/disinformation). 

Relevance: Relevant posts are either specifically about CBRN/WMD issues or include substantial discussion of them, even if the main topic is something else. A post would not be relevant if it: 

  • uses CBRN terms figuratively (ex. “That cold snap totally nuked my vegetable garden!”); 
  • hijacks CBRN hashtags to farm engagement (ex. “GlorpCoin is the hottest new crypto on the market. Buy now!!! #biolab); 
  • briefly mentions CBRN as a descriptor or aside (ex. A lengthy post that contains the phrase “nuclear weapons state” once and no other mention of CBRN/WMD.); 
  • is written in a language other than English, Ukrainian, or Russian. 

Scope: Posts are in scope if they discuss CBRN/WMD in an emotionally charged or otherwise sensationalist way meant to provoke a negative audience reaction or political change. A post may be in scope if it: 

  • speculates or fearmongers about CBRN development and/or use; 
  • calls for CBRN proliferation and/or use; 
  • fearmongers about nuclear escalation; 
  • uses the possibility of CBRN deployment to call for policy change.  

A post is likely not in scope if it: 

  • jokes about CBRN with no clear disinformation motive or call to action; 
  • presents information or news about CBRN in a neutral, factual tone; 
  • describes historical facts about WMD development/use without tying them to current events. 
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