Disinformation Trends
MONITORING SNAPSHOT 15
15 – 28 April 2025
SUMMARY
DFRLab conducts a bimonthly analysis of data based on a search query including Ukrainian, Russian and English languages to identify spikes in CBRN disinformation narratives. This report (15 – 28 April 2025) reveals an increase in volume of nuclear-related narratives and chatter on both Telegram and X (formerly Twitter) focused on discourse around ownership of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (ZNPP) following leaks of a proposed US peace plan. Another major topic is speculation surrounding the possibility that Ukraine is developing a “dirty bomb” based on its purchase of a medication intended to counteract radiological poisoning from an Israeli manufacturer. Additionally, a large portion of the chatter this monitoring period was occupied by messages talking about the probability of nuclear escalation between India and Pakistan following the Pahalgam terrorist attack. Most biological narratives centered around claims tied to the Covid-19 virus and vaccines, falsely labeling them as bioweapons. Some individual messages spoke about the alleged use of vaccines as bioweapons in Africa, claims of bioweapon use against Hungary, and the presence of biolabs in Ukraine. This monitoring period has seen a small resurgence of chemical weapon narratives, with a narrative about an alleged joint provocation between MI-6 and Ukraine against Russia, implying the possible use of chemical weapons.
CHEMICAL DISINFORMATION:
False claims about possible chemical attack against Russia as part of a provocation.
BIOLOGICAL DISINFORMATION:
Ongoing claims about Covid-19 as a bioweapon.
RADIOLOGICAL AND NUCLEAR DISINFORMATION:
Claims about Ukraine’s alleged plans to develop a “dirty bomb” and chatter about ZNPP ownership.
Daily percent of likely dis/misinformation posts grouped by type of WMD discussed
80
Percent of Reviewed CBRN-Relevant Posts
60
Theme
chem disinfo
bio disinfo
40
nuke disinfo
CBRN chatter
20
0
4/15
4/15
4/15
4/15
4/19
4/20
4/21
4/22
4/23
4/24
4/25
4/26
4/27
4/28
Date
Percent of Reviewed CBRN-Relevant Posts
80
60
40
20
0
4/15
4/20
4/25
4/28
Date
Theme
nuke disinfo
chem disinfo
bio disinfo
CBRN chatter
This graph displays the daily percentage of manually reviewed CBRN-related content comprised of probable mis/disinformation focused on each type of WMD compared to general WMD chatter that is circulating
Prevalence of Keywords in CBRN Disinformation from monitoring period relative to prior periods
Keywords above the line were mentioned in an above average number of posts, while keywords below the line were discussed less frequently than usual. Note that each keyword accounts for variation in the term. For example, “NPP” captures not only the acronym, but also “nuclear power plant” and “nuclear plant” across all three languages.
EXAMPLES OF DISINFORMATION NARRATIVE TRENDS
Chemical Disinformation
- Claims MI-6 joint with Ukraine is planning a provocation against Russia with one of the possibilities involving chemical weapons or a chemical attack against Russia (link)
Sources: Twitter/X; Telegram
Biological Disinformation
- Claims about Covid-19 and vaccines as bioweapons with mention of biolabs in Ukraine
- Claims vaccines in Africa were used as bioweapons
- Resurgence of disinformation stating a disease outbreak in Hungary is a biological attack
Sources: Twitter/X; Telegram
Radiological and Nuclear Disinformation
- Discussions around leaked conditions of a peace treaty proposed by the US mentioning ownership of ZNPP (link, link), including Russia’s response to suggestion that ZNPP would be returned to Ukraine
- Claims Ukraine was preparing for the development of a “dirty bomb” due to their purchase of radiology medication from an Israeli manufacturer
- Claims Ukraine tried to attack ZNPP with a drone (link)
- Chatter about Bulgaria’s decision not to sell NPP equipment to Ukraine
- Russian statements about ability to choose the nuclear option if threatened by the West
Sources: Telegram; Twitter/X; Web
IDENTIFYING DISINFORMATION TRENDS
The Global Partnership against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction (GP) is committed to strengthening WMD disarmament and nonproliferation efforts. Disinformation campaigns significantly undermine cooperative threat reduction efforts. The GP Counter WMD Disinformation Initiative aims to track ongoing narratives, understand their impacts and counter state-sponsored or state-adjacent disinformation across Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) threats.
Narrative Trend Monitoring: As part of the GP efforts to identify, understand, and mitigate hostile CBRN disinformation, the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRLab) conducts a bimonthly search query of state-sponsored or state-adjacent disinformation narratives. This real-time detection allows the initiative to swiftly recognize, isolate and respond to disinformation narratives and networks as they occur.
Methodology: This snapshot report is created from a search query that includes content in Ukrainian, Russian, and English languages, providing an extended search base and corpus of analysis and scale. The focus of the query is centered around CBRN–related messages about the Russian War on Ukraine on social media platforms and online news websites. The report provides examples of notable messages that are likely to include disinformation or key discussions that might be used in mis/disinformation in the future.
Disclaimer: Links are provided for published news sources of official state accounts; links to private accounts are excluded for privacy preservation reasons.