Disinformation Trends
MONITORING SNAPSHOT 2
1-14 October 2024
SUMMARY
DFRLab conducts a bimonthly analysis of monitoring periods from a search query including Ukrainian, Russian and English languages to identify when spikes of CBRN disinformation narratives are spreading. This report (October 1-14) saw a new wave of claims of attacks on nuclear power plants (NPPs) in Russia and Ukraine, consistent with findings from previous monitoring reports; allegations of chemical weapon use by Ukraine; allegations of Ukraine colluding with the US and jointly preparing chemical false flag operations to frame Russia and fully exclude it from OPCW; and newly surfacing speculation about the use of Marburg Fever as a bioweapon.
CHEMICAL DISINFORMATION:
Allegations of the development and use of chemical weapons for provocations and false flag operations.
BIOLOGICAL DISINFORMATION:
Unfounded claims about bioweapon development and use.
RADIOLOGICAL AND NUCLEAR DISINFORMATION:
Messaging with claims about attacks on NPPs, nuclear weapon development, and Western involvement.
EXAMPLES OF DISINFORMATION NARRATIVE TRENDS
Chemical Disinformation
- Claims Ukraine is using chemical weapons, both on the battlefield and against Russian opinion leaders.
- Allegations of the presence of Ukrainian chemical weapon labs close to the frontlines, including one near Avdiivka, Ukraine (link).
- Russian leadership claiming they provided evidence of Ukraine’s use of banned chemical weapons against Russian soldiers to OPCW (link).
- Unfounded allegations of NATO countries supplying Ukraine with chemical weapons (link).
- Ongoing claims of Ukrainian collusion with the US to set up chemical provocations that would be then used to exclude Russia from OPCW (link).
Sources: Telegram; Twitter/X
Biological Disinformation
- Unfounded claims on the possibility of Ukraine using the Marburg Fever pathogen as a bioweapon against Russian soldiers, compounded with allegations of Ukraine preparing for new provocations.
- Allegations of the development and use of Covid-19 vaccines as bioweapons.
Sources: Telegram; Twitter/X
Radiological and Nuclear Disinformation
- Multiple allegations of Ukrainian attacks on Russian NPPs, particularly on the NPP in Kursk (link). This was followed in some messages by claims Ukraine was using Western-supplied weapons (specifically HIMARS and French-made missiles) to conduct these attacks.
- Accusations of involvement of intelligence branches of various Western states (in particular the British MI-6) in preparation of Ukrainian provocations against Russian NPPs (link, link).
Sources: Telegram; Twitter/X
IDENTIFYING DISINFORMATION TRENDS
The Global Partnership against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction (GP) is committed to strengthening WMD disarmament and nonproliferation efforts. Disinformation campaigns significantly undermine cooperative threat reduction efforts. The GP Counter WMD Disinformation Initiative aims to track ongoing narratives, understand their impacts and counter state-sponsored or state-adjacent disinformation across Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) threats.
Narrative Trend Monitoring: As part of the GP efforts to identify, understand, and mitigate hostile CBRN disinformation, the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRLab) conducts a bimonthly search query of state-sponsored or state-adjacent disinformation narratives. This real-time detection allows the initiative to swiftly recognize, isolate and respond to disinformation narratives and networks as they occur.
Methodology: This snapshot report is created from a search query that includes content in Ukrainian, Russian, and English languages, providing an extended search base and corpus of analysis and scale. The focus of the query is centered around CBRN–related messages about the Russian War on Ukraine on social media platforms and online news websites. The report provides examples of notable messages that are likely to include disinformation or key discussions that might be used in mis/disinformation in the future.
Disclaimer: Links are provided for published news sources of official state accounts; links to private accounts are excluded for privacy preservation reasons.