Disinformation Trends
MONITORING SNAPSHOT 11
18 February – 3 March 2025
SUMMARY
DFRLab conducts a bimonthly analysis of data based on a search query including Ukrainian, Russian, and English languages to identify spikes in CBRN disinformation narratives. This report (18 February–3 March 2025) reveals multiple nuclear-related narratives with allegations of Ukraine attempting to attack Russian nuclear facilities, particularly the Kalinin nuclear power plant (NPP). Numerous posts claimed the West is pushing Ukraine to provoke a nuclear strike from Russia, alongside speculation about “dirty bomb” deployment to hinder peace negotiations. Biological threat disinformation narratives continued to dominate social media platforms, with widespread conspiracy theories about US-funded biolabs in Ukraine allegedly developing bioweapons. Several posts falsely suggested Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is attempting to provoke World War III to cover up bioweapon development. The biolab disinformation narrative is also expanding to other areas, including Armenia.
CHEMICAL DISINFORMATION:
Claims about chemical weapon labs in Ukraine
BIOLOGICAL DISINFORMATION:
Large wave of claims centered around US-funded biolabs in Ukraine and their expansion to Armenia
RADIOLOGICAL AND NUCLEAR DISINFORMATION:
Returning claims of Ukraine’s alleged attempts to develop a “dirty bomb” and messages about alleged attacks against Kalinin NPP
EXAMPLES OF DISINFORMATION NARRATIVE TRENDS
Chemical Disinformation
- Claims about chemical weapon labs in Ukraine
Biological Disinformation
- Ongoing unsubstantiated claims about biolab development and operations in multiple regions:
- Multiple claims that Ukraine is developing bioweapons in US-funded labs
- Claims that Zelensky is trying to provoke WWIII in part to cover up bioweapon development
- Claims that the US is conducting experiments to develop bioweapons in Armenia (link)
- Claims that the full-scale invasion was inevitable due in part to biolabs in Ukraine and continued claims about 30 US-funded biolabs in Ukraine
- Subsequent claims about Ukraine mishandling US biolabs
- Claims that the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) is using bacteriological weapons against their own soldiers
Sources: Twitter/X; Telegram
Radiological and Nuclear Disinformation
- Claims that Ukraine could use “dirty bombs” to prevent a peaceful settlement of the war (link)
- Unfounded allegations that the West is pushing Ukraine to provoke a nuclear strike from Russia (link)
- Claims about Ukraine allegedly attacking the Kalinin NPP in Russia’s Tver region (link)
- Claims about Ukraine considering spreading radioactive material through drones (link)
Sources: Telegram; Twitter/X; Web
IDENTIFYING DISINFORMATION TRENDS
The Global Partnership against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction (GP) is committed to strengthening WMD disarmament and nonproliferation efforts. Disinformation campaigns significantly undermine cooperative threat reduction efforts. The GP Counter WMD Disinformation Initiative aims to track ongoing narratives, understand their impacts and counter state-sponsored or state-adjacent disinformation across Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) threats.
Narrative Trend Monitoring: As part of the GP efforts to identify, understand, and mitigate hostile CBRN disinformation, the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRLab) conducts a bimonthly search query of state-sponsored or state-adjacent disinformation narratives. This real-time detection allows the initiative to swiftly recognize, isolate and respond to disinformation narratives and networks as they occur.
Methodology: This snapshot report is created from a search query that includes content in Ukrainian, Russian, and English languages, providing an extended search base and corpus of analysis and scale. The focus of the query is centered around CBRN–related messages about the Russian War on Ukraine on social media platforms and online news websites. The report provides examples of notable messages that are likely to include disinformation or key discussions that might be used in mis/disinformation in the future.
Disclaimer: Links are provided for published news sources of official state accounts; links to private accounts are excluded for privacy preservation reasons.