Disinformation Trends

MONITORING SNAPSHOT 7

10 December 2024 – 6 January 2025

SUMMARY

DFRLab conducts a bimonthly analysis of data based on a search query including Ukrainian, Russian and English languages to identify when spikes of CBRN disinformation narratives are spreading. This report (10 December 2024 – 6 January 2025) saw an emergence of claims of Ukraine biolab origin of H5N1 (avian flu); an influx of unfounded allegations about alleged Ukrainian plans to attack various nuclear power plants (NPPs); and unfounded speculations around the possibility of Western involvement in the assassination of General Igor Kirillov, head of the Chemical, Biological, and Nuclear Defense Troops of the Russian Armed Forces.

Biological

BIOLOGICAL DISINFORMATION:

Re-emergence of claims of the presence of US-funded biolabs in Ukraine.

Chemical

RADIOLOGICAL AND NUCLEAR DISINFORMATION:

Unfounded claims of Ukraine’s plans to take over nuclear power plants (NPPs) and continued allegations about “dirty bomb” development.

EXAMPLES OF DISINFORMATION NARRATIVE TRENDS

Biological Disinformation

Russia biosecurity
  • Extensive claims about US-operated biolabs in Ukraine, with allegations expanding to similar operations in Africa (link, link)
  • Claims about deadly bird flu strains allegedly recovered from US biolabs in Ukraine
  • Allegations linking various diseases (COVID-19, bird flu, coronavirus) to bioweapon development
  • Claims about US collecting biological materials from Russians during the invasion of Ukraine (link)
  • Multiple claims speculating on the assassination of General Igor Kirillov, head of the Chemical, Biological, and Nuclear Defense Troops of the Russian Armed Forces, and his role in spreading disinformation on US biolab activities

Sources: Telegram; Twitter/X

Radiological and Nuclear Disinformation

  • Claims about Ukrainian forces attempting to attack multiple nuclear power plants (particularly Zaporizhzhia NPP and Novovoronezh NPP) with drones (link)
  • Allegations about Ukraine preparing nuclear provocations that could damage Kursk or Chornobyl NPPs
  • Speculation about NATO planning nuclear-related false flag operations in European cities
  • Allegations about missing Ukrainian nuclear weapons in the US
  • Assertions about Ukraine testing secret US radio electronic weapons affecting the human nervous system

Sources: Telegram; Twitter/X; Web articles; YouTube

IDENTIFYING DISINFORMATION TRENDS

The Global Partnership against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction (GP) is committed to strengthening WMD disarmament and nonproliferation efforts. Disinformation campaigns significantly undermine cooperative threat reduction efforts. The GP Counter WMD Disinformation Initiative aims to track ongoing narratives, understand their impacts and counter state-sponsored or state-adjacent disinformation across Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) threats.

 

Narrative Trend Monitoring: As part of the GP efforts to identify, understand, and mitigate hostile CBRN disinformation, the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRLab) conducts a bimonthly search query of state-sponsored or state-adjacent disinformation narratives. This real-time detection allows the initiative to swiftly recognize, isolate and respond to disinformation narratives and networks as they occur.

 

Methodology: This snapshot report is created from a search query that includes content in Ukrainian, Russian, and English languages, providing an extended search base and corpus of analysis and scale. The focus of the query is centered around CBRN–related messages about the Russian War on Ukraine on social media platforms and online news websites. The report provides examples of notable messages that are likely to include disinformation or key discussions that might be used in mis/disinformation in the future.

 

Disclaimer: Links are provided for published news sources of official state accounts; links to private accounts are excluded for privacy preservation reasons.