Disinformation Trends
MONITORING SNAPSHOT 5
12 – 25 November 2024
SUMMARY
DFRLab conducts a bimonthly analysis of data based on a search query including Ukrainian, Russian and English languages to identify when spikes of in CBRN disinformation narratives are spreading. This report (November 12 – November 25) saw a continued influx of claims from Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) that Ukraine is attacking Russian soldiers with chemical agents, including mustard gas; ongoing allegations of Ukraine’s capacity to develop a “dirty bomb”; the resurgence of claims about the presence of US-funded biolabs in Ukraine developing pathogens; as well as allegations that the US would provide Ukraine with nuclear weapons.
CHEMICAL DISINFORMATION:
Russian allegations of Ukraine’s use of chemical weapons, including a report of Russia’s appeal to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW).
BIOLOGICAL DISINFORMATION:
Resurgent claims about presence of US-funded biolabs in Ukraine and allegations about the development of Covid-19 as a bioweapon.
RADIOLOGICAL AND NUCLEAR DISINFORMATION:
Unfounded discussions about the capacity of Ukraine to develop a “dirty bomb” and allegations of the use of potential nuclear escalation by the US providing Ukraine with nuclear weapons.
EXAMPLES OF DISINFORMATION NARRATIVE TRENDS
Chemical Disinformation
Biological Disinformation
- Claims of 30 US-funded biolabs in Ukraine (link, link)
- Allegations of biolabs in Ukraine developing dangerous pathogens
- Speculation about using children’s biomaterials for experiments in Ukrainian biolabs
- Assertions that COVID-19 was developed as part of a US biodefense program (link)
Sources: Telegram; Twitter/X
Radiological and Nuclear Disinformation
- Speculation about the possibility of Ukraine developing a “Fat Man” type bomb (link)
- Claims that the US might equip Ukraine with nuclear weapons
- Allegations that the Biden administration could intentionally escalate nuclear tensions to prevent a peaceful transfer of power to Donald Trump
Sources: Telegram; Twitter/X
IDENTIFYING DISINFORMATION TRENDS
The Global Partnership against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction (GP) is committed to strengthening WMD disarmament and nonproliferation efforts. Disinformation campaigns significantly undermine cooperative threat reduction efforts. The GP Counter WMD Disinformation Initiative aims to track ongoing narratives, understand their impacts and counter state-sponsored or state-adjacent disinformation across Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) threats.
Narrative Trend Monitoring: As part of the GP efforts to identify, understand, and mitigate hostile CBRN disinformation, the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRLab) conducts a bimonthly search query of state-sponsored or state-adjacent disinformation narratives. This real-time detection allows the initiative to swiftly recognize, isolate and respond to disinformation narratives and networks as they occur.
Methodology: This snapshot report is created from a search query that includes content in Ukrainian, Russian, and English languages, providing an extended search base and corpus of analysis and scale. The focus of the query is centered around CBRN–related messages about the Russian War on Ukraine on social media platforms and online news websites. The report provides examples of notable messages that are likely to include disinformation or key discussions that might be used in mis/disinformation in the future.
Disclaimer: Links are provided for published news sources of official state accounts; links to private accounts are excluded for privacy preservation reasons.